India-U.S. trade negotiations are unlikely to produce a final agreement soon, as the U.S. plans to launch and complete new Section 301 investigations into countries competing with India in the American market. A source familiar with the process said countries such as Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and the Philippines could be investigated.
These inquiries will evaluate trade practices and might lead to tariffs or other measures against the countries involved. The source called Pakistan’s exclusion from the excess-capacity Section 301 investigations initiated in March 2026 a “strategic mistake.” Fresh investigations are likely to be announced soon, though details on targets, topics, and timelines remain undecided.
Because these investigations must conclude and any tariff actions be determined before advancing negotiations, a trade deal with India is unlikely during Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal’s upcoming U.S. visit for the G20 trade ministerial starting September 30.
This situation shows that bilateral talks are influenced not only by India-U.S. issues but also by the U.S.'s trade relations with competing countries, with the sequence expected to involve investigations, possible tariffs on competitors, and then progress toward the India-U.S. trade agreement.
