Prediction market traders expect U.S. gasoline prices to reach new highs in 2026 as crude oil prices surpass $100 per barrel. The recent increase in oil costs is linked to rising tensions between the United States and Iran, raising concerns about global oil supplies and the critical Strait of Hormuz, a key oil shipment route. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 3.5% on Monday to over $103 per barrel, intensifying pressure on gasoline prices.
AAA’s national average showed U.S. gasoline prices peaking at $4.56 per gallon on May 21. Traders on Kalshi now price a 71% chance that the average will exceed $4.60 per gallon in 2026. They estimate a 57% probability of prices rising above $4.80 and just over a 40% chance of surpassing $5.00 per gallon. The U.S. last recorded a national average above $5 per gallon in June 2022.
Kalshi’s prediction market suggests that elevated gasoline prices may persist beyond a short-term spike. Traders assign a 50% probability that the average U.S. gas price will remain above $4.25 per gallon on Election Day, November 3. Contracts, settled using AAA data, track whether gasoline prices cross certain thresholds. This outlook reflects how geopolitical tensions and potential disruptions to global oil flows can swiftly impact crude prices and gasoline costs for American consumers.
